A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
